Consequently, the actual negotiations will not be opened in chapters such as free movement of goods, right of installation and service providing, financial services, agriculture and rural development, fishing, transportation, customs union and foreign affairs.

The Commission found suitable to start the actual negotiations in the remaining chapters. It also brought in the condition of opening the ports for the Greek Cypriots for those opened chapters to be closed.

The decision also suggests whether Turkey fulfils its responsibilities should be evaluated not by the member states but the Commission. The approval of this article by the member states seems like a low possibility too.

“What does the decision include?”...

The Commission’s recommendation decision includes the following items:

1-Turkey-EU relations “definitely” include the Cyprus dossier.

2-The European Union will keep supporting the Greek Cypriot theses –as it always did- unconditionally and ignore the Turkish theses.

3-The value of Turkey’s performance it will show during the accession negotiations with the union has dropped to a secondary stage.

4-In line with the said decision, even Turkey’s full realisation of all the union expectations apart from “Cyprus” under the current condition, will make the possibility of completing the negotiations invalid.

5-Since “the chapters in which the actual negotiations are advised to start” are related to the other chapters to a certain extend, starting actual negotiations in other chapters is uncertain as well.

6-It is uncertain what will happen when it comes to one of those eight chapters during the Turkey-European Union negotiations. It is not clear, in a situation like this, whether the following chapter will be negotiated or the negotiations will be suspended until the demands of the union are met.

The advisory decision having all these principles seems to have based on an intention of referring Turkey to “another option rather than full membership”.

“The EU has United About the Turkey Issue”...

Commissioner Olli Rehn’s words that the negotiations must continue even if they are slow and there will not be a train accident but a slow down attracts attention as the confection of information within diplomacy framework.

Rehn was using the train symbol as “Turkey’s EU accession negotiations” before and what he meant with train accident was a disturbance in Turkey-EU negotiations. As the recommendation decision of the Commission disturbed the Turkey-EU negotiations, it should be accepted that there has been a train accident in refer with the train symbol.

But when the Commission’s objectives of “continuation of the accession negotiations” but “not permitting Turkey’s accession into the EU” are considered, it is understood that the decision to suspend the negotiations was taken “to keep Turkey anchored in the EU institutions and to disable Turkey’s leaving the table” but it avoids pronouncing a train accident really took place in Turkey-EU relations.

Olli Rehn’s description that “opening negotiations apart from those 8 chapters is an important development” of the current situation attracts attention as a traditionalised example of “creating an artificial crisis and solving it”, “scaring with death and convincing for malaria” and “showing what there is, is better than what it is” of the Union.

According to what Rehn said, it is possible to open chapters of “education-culture”, “economic and financial affairs”, “financial control and industry policy”. But what Rehn especially avoids to say is it is not possible to close the said chapters - in line with the recommendation decision -, although it is possible to open them.

The latest situation shows that eight of the negotiation chapters (apart from one that was opened and temporarily closed) will never be opened and the remaining 24 will not be closed if they are opened.

A little diplomatic manoeuvre included in the recommendation decision is the point that “whether Turkey fulfils its responsibilities will be checked not by the member states from now on but by the Commission”.

Although this expression creates the impression – on the paper - that the member states’ veto card against Turkey is getting weaker, the reality is completely opposite. Many members of the union, and especially the Greek Cypriots, are uncomfortable to be pushed forward by the union and with the rest hiding behind them in every crisis. In addition, the Commission, because of its agenda that gets heavier in every six months and constrained unanimity system, is not happy with Turkey’s causing the questioning of all principles and rules of the Union alongside with its operability.

That is why if this recommendation decision finds approval in the Council, the member states will shift the duty of Turkey onto the Commission in a way. Even Turkey will find only one addressee when this actually happens; in practice, the view and approach of every single 25 members will protect its importance. The Union will speak to Turkey as one voice via the Commission and the Commission will speak on behalf of all 25 members in every opportunity.

The practical result of this application is the Commission’s taking an action suggested by the majority, in situations that the number of those who look at Turkey negatively is more than those with positive views, and this situation is never in favour of Turkey.

In this application that will seal the relations of the union with Turkey, the EU will not put Greek Cypriots or any other member under the spotlights and will act as the representative of the collective will.

“Turkey’s Options”...

Not many options are seen before Turkey if what will follow next is looked at. However, the following can be said definitely:

Turkey, in contrast with guesses and expectations, can not continue its relations with the European Union on the same route as it did so far. Despite the existence of statements revealing that Turkey would continue its path as “usual”, the recommendation decision of the European Commission put forth that this situation is not demanded in Europe and listed some precautions to block it.

The decision which was placed on the fine line between suspension and freezing, documents the altered conditions for Turkey-EU relations. The negotiations calendar and programme which were in force so far have been shelved. Openings and closings of negotiation chapters are reorganised. With this development, continuing the negotiations as usual should not be expected.

Although the accession negotiations have developed in theory more than practice, almost no negotiation documents are evident and a limited number of negotiation contacts have taken place between Turkey and the European Union, there is a joyful point: Our Chief Negotiator may not be stuck at airports and released out of the customs from cargo gates.

This view that Turkey-European Union accession negotiations did not really exist is a stabilization of situation more than an analysis. Turkey Europe Mixed Parliamentary Commission co-chairman Joost Lagendijk says that “no Turkish negotiators in Brussels because the negotiation process has literally stopped”.

The Commission’s recommendation decision both tries to legalize the Turkey-European Union relations’ current situation and make the negotiation conditions heavier.

The options before Turkey roughly focus on two centres:

Turkey might surrender to threats, blackmails, impositions and pressures on Cyprus and full EU membership before the summit that will be held in December by giving up on its Cyprus case.

Turkey might freeze or suspend the political dialogue if the Commission’s recommendation decision to limit the negotiations is included in the final communiqué of the summit with the union by not taking any steps before the December summit and giving up on its righteous case.

“Finland’s Demolishing Role”...

Finland who will continue the term presidency until the end of December and matured the conditions for its successor Germany has been incompetent in a serious sense.

Helsinki, following its incompetence about Turkey and Cyprus, is showing a great effort to make Turkey to accept a ridiculous “resolution package” which is somehow developed by itself as a last minute expectation.

While the invoice for the failure of the Finnish incentive of Cyprus, which is a “fiasco” as French Le Monde says, is tried to be sent to Turkey, Finland’s Prime Minister’s Ankara visit following the Commission’s decision constraining Turkey is seen as a search for a “golden goal” – with Rehn’s terminology.

This question will be taken up again at the European Commission after Finland’s contact with Turkey. The European Commission will probably make another recommendation on December 6th.

In any case – even there is not a new recommendation decision – the Commission’s recommendation decision will come up during the EU foreign ministers meeting on December 11th. The decision of this meeting will be taken up during the heads of state and government summit that will convene on December 14th and 15th.

According to the resolution package put forth by Finland but it avoids to put it in writing for some reason, Maraş will be opened for UN observation. Moreover, Turkey will open its ports to the Greek Cypriots. In return, the embargoes over Cypriot Turks will be lightened. Meanwhile, it would be better to say that the embargoes will be lightened in line with the European Union’s interests.

Turkey’s rejection of this proposal should not surprise anybody when its content is considered but its being proposed should. However, the Greek Cypriot rejection of the same package signals that the Greel Cypriots have greater expectations from the summit.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in a statement he made to German News Agency (DPA) in Finland’s Tampere city where he was for the occasion of an EU and the Mediterranean countries said that Finland would prepare a new proposition for keeping the negotiations and convergence process alive.

It is not certain that whether a new package will be prepared or not but a new package which could be summarized as “ports for embargoes” or “embargoes for ports”, by excluding the Maraş point that is against wisdom and logic and Turkey strongly opposes might be put forth.

There is not a common point or a comparable value between the “embargoes which the Union previously pledged to lift” and the ports, no doubt. But it is certain that the Union extensively counts on its ability “to scare with death and convince for malaria”.

“Turkey A La Carté!”...

At this point, it might be right to draw attention to what Greek Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyanni said:

“We can not go on as nothing has happened. The message given to Turkey is clear. We want Turkey to become a part of the EU. We want Turkey to become a full member but an a la carte Europe does not exist”. Bakoyanni is voicing a view that Turkey could not follow the European rules that it wants and ignore the ones that do not suit her. Bakoyanni touches this view with her words that “an a la carte Europe does not exist”.

However, what Bakoyanni can not see is that Turkey is not “a la carte” either. For example, an a la carte menu with Turkey’s Istanbul, coasts, the Patriarchate, customs, sea and air ports and minority congregations is out of the question.

“Turkey’s Advantage”...

There is a single but great advantage that the Commission’s recommendation decision brought to Turkey. The Cyprus sword that the European Union is trying to swing over Turkey’s head could become an important cause for Turkey for the rest of the negotiations. The right of saying the final word in any case since the chapters will not be closed because of the Cyprus issue – if we stay on the table or if there is still a table – will be Turkey’s.

Whether the negotiations stops, continues or are completed, in line with the conditions that will shape then, Turkey can weigh in what degree its expectations became real and tell its final words.

“Germany’s Term Presidency is Around the Corner”...

Turkey – European Union accession negotiations may take their final shape during the German term presidency that will start in January. In the case that this approach becomes “a basic parameter” with the Commission’s advice, Berlin might host the finale of the open ended negotiations.

When the intellectual articles appeared on the German media are considered, a frame that needs to be taken important comes up. A “third way” is defined except the Germany’s insistence on “privileged partnership” and Turkey’s allergy to “privileged partnership”.

The third way called “Gradual partnership” is on a fine line between “membership” and “neighbourhood”. Gradual integration includes “customs union” and “common foreign, security and defence policies”. “Gradual partnership” foresees full membership in the said chapters but an associate country with privilege opportunities. “Gradual partnership” seems like the best method to take a country’s economy, defence and foreign policy. Moreover, it also attracts attention as the most practical and the cheapest method on the target, since there will not be adaptation and adaptation cost that the negotiation chapters brings the need of.

“Conclusion”...

The train accident prepared by the European Union with full care is indeed a conspiracy. The aim of this conspiracy is to downgrade Turkey’s expectations from the union and the common future to a lower level. This mechanism, which seems to be continuously used even the Cyprus issue leaves its place to other dossiers, is a trap for Turkey. Turkey does not have to wait until the trap closes.

Finally;

Those who have kept saying for years that “soured relations with the European Union would disturb the markets”, “Turkey should not follow a rough foreign policy with this much foreign borrowings”, “Turkey’s credit score would be lowered” and “Turkey would rather follow a deliberate and cautious policy; should read the following sentence:

The international credit rating organization Standard and Poor’s (S and P) Turkey analyst Faruk Soussa said that the recommendation decision for suspending Turkey’s full membership negotiations will not affect Turkey’s economy’s grounds and credit rating.