22 07 2011


The Arabic world is advancing shakily through the pages of history. Some might attribute responsibility to Twitter and Facebook. Others might criticise the economic system and the political models. In any case there is an undisputed point: in the Middle East strata of society have less and less trust in political parties and state institutions.

The growing abnormality and rising anomaly in the Arabic world could in time lead to the collapse of the whole system as it happened in Greece. In the continuation of the process many countries in the Middle East and North Africa may experience simultaneous, connected, partially coordinated and very bloody civil wars. Some of these civil wars may become intertwined with one another and some borders might cease to function.

Should such a possibility turn into actuality, the chronic problems and increasing injustice could lead to the masses viewing their internal differences not as “wealthy diversity” but as a “reason for polarisation”.

For example, in misfortunate Lebanon, the population of four million people belong to 18 different religious congregations. Rising intolerance, excitement at news of demonstrations, protests, uprisings and revolution coming from other Arabic countries and the weakness of national institutions as is common in Arabic countries, could lead to very bad results once these factors interact with the effects of the global financial crisis.

For the West, which labels what is going on in the Middle East and North Africa the “Eastern Problem”, the answer to the problems could be hidden in these experiences.

In this process the division of Egypt into three parts, Syria into four and Lebanon into eight could come up. The new borders which would probably be drawn up partially in accordance with national and religious criteria, with an ethnocentric viewpoint could come to be seen as safeguards for the security and stability of resources.

In fact, the process could also bring up the possibility of the world recognising Palestine’s independence. It might undoubtedly be possible that Israel would take certain steps and the necessary political climate for an unconditional, profitable and exciting new beginning in Israeli-Arab relations be established. It is certain that Israel has been watching the developments in the Arabic world, in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and others with interest and satisfaction.

Had the regimes in Arabic countries been more transparent, more democratic, more respectful of the people and more just until now, they may not have experienced any problems. It may have sufficed to this end had they used a small part of their oil dollars for the benefit of the people and for social justice.

It seems that the rift between palaces and the squares will grow increasingly wider. As in the example of Syria, should the regimes not prefer to adjust to change and not implement action plans aiming at democratisation, the coming phases of the Arab Spring could cause more discomforting developments. Regimes need to spend more money and effort for more freedom and liberalism in both politics and the economy.

Had the army been able to quench the demands of the people, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya or Syria would have accomplished it.

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