SYRIA IS IN DEFINING MOMENT FOR ARAB WORLD
by Paul Sullivan
Syria is once again one of those beautiful countries with a deep and fascinating history. If it were peaceful and more open to the world it could be a tourism paradise that could link its great sites to those of Turkey, Jordan, and more. The potential for tourism development in Syria is vast.
Syria also has a fairly well educated population and fairly good infrastructure. Its banking system was on a long road to modernizing for years prior to the Arab Spring striking them. There were also some economic reforms in process that seemed to help the economy move along. Prior to the present troubles the Syrian economy was growing at about 4-5 percent. But as with Egypt and Tunisia this growth was not evenly shared. Macroeconomic data pointed to a strengthening Syrian economy. But microeconomic indicators pointed to high unemployment and underemployment. Corruption was rife and some people were getting very wealthy as most people stayed the same or worse.
Syria is yet another bifurcated economy in the Arab world that proved to be ripe for rebellion and dissent. This was kept in check for many years by a brutal and intrusive security services. The world is now seeing them in full action in the bloody response to rebellion. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, the Syrian Army is not looked upon favorably by many in the country. It has also done much lately to make its relations with the people more strained. Could the Army of Syria save its country as the Egyptian Army did? I doubt it at the moment. This could make one worried about the future of Syria and how it will recover from its recent difficulties. There is also the huge question about who would take over if the Asad regime indeed falls. The pressures on the regime are gigantic, both internally and externally.
The best way for Syria may have been to reform the economy and open up the politics of the country gradually and carefully. However, this all seems to be a moot point now.
One of the major lessons for leadership in the future is: when the tide comes up, and the economic tide for Syria was coming up prior to the troubles, make sure everyone’s boat is rising. Otherwise, expect trouble.
Another lesson for leadership is: go after corruption and wasta networks that are damaging your relations with the people before the people turn on you. The best leaders put forward efforts to help the people as a whole, not just the people who are connected. Syria had a real chance to make change before all of this happened.
To read rest of the article, go to the Al Arabiya News website, in which this article was first published on June 13, 2011.
Tags: Arab World, Economy, Paul Sullivan, Syria