THE KEY TO RESTARTING TURKEY’S EU ENGINE
Hugh Pope is Turkey/Cyprus Project Director for International Crisis Group. To read more, see his Global Expert profile.
The Cyprus reunification talks are getting stuck, again. But for Turkey this should no longer be a license to shrug, yawn and allow the standoff on the island to slide further towards partition. Contrary to public perceptions, the situation is not static. The diplomatic stalemate is forcing the dispute into an area that is strongly against Turkish national interests.
Take a look at some previously unimaginable changes since the last breakdown in 2004. Turkish Cypriots are demonstrating against Turkish policies on the island. Turkey’s EU accession talks have slowed to crawl – mostly because of Cyprus – and the Turkish prime minister is almost daring EU leaders to break them off. And tumult in the Middle East has revealed the risks Turkey would be running if the Cyprus dispute really did result in politicians in Ankara carrying out their often-repeated threat to “choose Cyprus,” turn their back on Europe, and base Turkey’s future on going it alone as a regional player.
The time has come for Turkey to rebalance its policies toward Europe – whatever the current leaders of France and Germany do and say. A Turkish attitude of “love us or leave us” is not working and is alienating even Turkey’s traditional allies in the EU and NATO. Turkey’s reform program is stumbling without the discipline of the EU accession process. Scorning the EU because of political dysfunction or the euro crisis is premature: Europe still enjoys an average income double that of Turkey, a gap that will take at least a generation, and probably two to close.
The EU – the world’s biggest market – is also still the meat and potatoes of the Turkish economic diet. Half of Turkey’s exports go to Europe, two-thirds of its foreign investment comes from Europe, and more than 3 million Turks live there. By way of comparison, just 10 percent of Turkey’s tourists come from the Middle East, and just 110,000 Turks lived and worked there until recently. The region offers opportunities but volatile ones. It took a quarter of Turkey’s exports two decades ago, but that ratio plunged to a tenth a decade ago, then shot back to a quarter again last year. The past month’s exodus of 20,000 workers from Libya, the crisis in Egypt and problems elsewhere doubtless suggest that ups and downs will continue to be the pattern.
To read rest of the article, see Hurriet Daily News, in which this article published on March 3, 2011.